Powell has prioritized consensus building, reflected in a string of 17 meetings with no dissenting votes. That came to an end on Wednesday as some of Powell’s colleagues had implied they were more comfortable leading off with a smaller cut.
On Monday, derivatives markets showed investors saw a 65% chance of a half-point cut. That’s up from 50-50 odds on Friday.
The Treasury Department released 603 pages of proposed rules for the corporate alternative minimum tax, or CAMT, an exceptionally complex endeavor for regulators and corporate tax executives. The proposal comes more than two years after Congress passed the law creating the tax and more than 20 months after it took effect.
Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has declined an average 1.2% in September, the weakest month of the year for stocks. The index ended lower 56% of the time over that stretch.
This year through late July, there have been 13 megadeals globally—defined as those valued at more than $5 billion—versus eight in all of 2023. Transaction value totaled $123.64 billion as of July, far more than the roughly $75 billion in megadeals struck in all of last year.
In July, the annual pace of multifamily-building starts was down 22% from the same month a year earlier, and down 41% from an April 2022 peak. Apartment starts fell to less than 61,000 units in the second quarter, the lowest level in the past decade.
U.S. households’ stock allocations have steadily inched up this year and recently accounted for around 42% of their total financial assets. That is the most on record in data going back to 1952.
Job growth slowed sharply in July, with the national unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021. At the same time, the share of people holding more than one job ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June. That is a significant increase from a pandemic low of 4% in April 2020 and average 4.94% average from 2010 through 2019.
As of July, consumer prices for food at home were 26% higher than they were at the end of 2019.
