The Barclays high-yield bond capitulation signal jumped 34 percentage points since the end of March to 91%, its highest level since October 2023, when Treasury yields surged on inflation fears. When the gauge hits 100%, the market is in full capitulation. That has happened five times this century: during the 2008-09 financial crisis; the 2011 European debt crisis; when oil prices plummeted in 2016; the start of the pandemic in 2020; and when interest rates surged in 2022.

Inflation cooled last month, with a year-over-year measure of underlying prices falling to its lowest level in four years.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks—Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla—have shed $2.1 trillion in market value since Trump’s tariff announcement last week.

Furloughs in the federal government totaled 216,215 for the month, part of a total 275,240 reductions overall in the labor force. The monthly total was surpassed only by April and May of 2020 in the early days of the pandemic when employers announced combined reductions of more than 1 million.

The 10 biggest U.S. consulting firms to the federal government have offered to cut billions of dollars from their contracts with agencies but face pushback from the Trump administration to deliver even deeper savings. Companies including Accenture, Booz Allen Hamilton, Deloitte, IBM and others met the General Services Administration deadline to justify their contracts and identify potential cost cuts to existing projects.

The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Dollar Tree agreed to a sale of its Family Dollar business to a consortium of private-equity investors for roughly $1 billion. Dollar Tree outbid its rival Dollar General to acquire the Family Dollar chain in 2015 for roughly $9 billion.

The FOMC voted to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. In its quarterly economic projection, the committee lowered its full-year 2025 GDP growth expectation to 1.7%, down from the 2.1% it forecast in December. The current unemployment rate is 4.1%, and the committee expects the median rate to be 4.4% at the end of the year.

Lincoln’s private-markets fund with Bain will invest in a cross section of credit, including loans to companies and loans to finance purchases of assets such as cars and real estate. A portion of the fund will also be invested in more easily traded assets. The vehicle will accept investors of any wealth level and allow them to cash out once a quarter. Lincoln thinks it is the first insurance company to launch private-market funds.

Nasdaq, long associated with its prime Times Square location, will open its first regional headquarters in Dallas. It’s the latest push by a New York institution into Texas, which is trying to unseat the Northeast as the epicenter of U.S. business.