Economy
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Cut Probability
August 1, 2025
Economy

Markets are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25bp cut in September and expect approximately 100 bps of cuts over the next year. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading at 4.33%, near the lower end of its year-to-date range.

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Corporate Leadership
July 30, 2025
Economy

In the Russell 3000, 41.5% of chief executives are at least 60 years old, up from 35.1% in 2017. Over the same period, the share of CEOs in their 30s and 40s has grown to 15.1% from 13.8%. People in their 50s held 51.1% of CEO seats eight years ago and now occupy 43.4%.

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UNP NSC
July 29, 2025
Economy

The $85 billion merger deal between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern joins 50,000 miles of railroad tracks that span from the Jersey shore to the ports in California. The union would create a single company controlling coast-to-coast rail shipments for the first time in U.S. history.

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World Economy
July 22, 2025
Economy

The world economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the first half of this year, around its longer-term trend.

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Venture Deal Flow
July 17, 2025
Economy

U.S. venture firms invested $69.9 billion across an estimated 4,001 deals, a 25% decline in deal value compared to the previous quarter. Artificial intelligence, national security, defense tech, fintech and crypto — all sectors aligned with the priorities of President Donald Trump’s administration — are attracting outsized interest from investors.

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Private Credit Growth
July 14, 2025
Economy

The private-credit business has grown fast in the past two decades, with capital raised for lending to private-equity-backed companies—the biggest part of the market—up more than 100-fold since 2006 to nearly $700 billion in 2024.

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Fast Casual Rewards
July 11, 2025
Economy

Consumers may be pulling back on spending, but fast-casual chains have found at least one way to keep diners coming back: rewards programs. From Chipotle and Starbucks to Cava and Sweetgreen, restaurant brands are using loyalty programs to drive sales.

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Affluent Sentiment
June 30, 2025
Economy

Only 26% of people in the top third of earners—households making about $130,000 or more—said in the three months ending in June that they were better off than a year ago, near the lowest level since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.

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Private Investments
June 26, 2025
Economy

BlackRock plans to offer a 401(k) target-date fund with a 5% to 20% allocation to private investments, depending on an investor’s age. BlackRock estimates target-date funds with private investments could earn an extra 0.5% annually on average before fees.

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