Fed officials now see rates falling from their current range of 3.5% to 3.75% by a quarter of a point this year, which would leave rates roughly at “neutral,” neither restricting nor stimulating growth.
The number of operating rigs in the Permian Basin is down 14% over the past year.
In 2025, job creation sputtered, wage growth cooled and the unemployment rate rose. Much of the job creation that took place in 2025 was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services.
Fundraising for U.S. venture-capital firms dropped 35% in 2025, the most anemic stretch in at least six years, with money flowing primarily to the most trusted investment firms as companies stay private longer. The $66 billion raised last year represents a 70% drop from the 2022 record.
The consumer sentiment index, which started the year at 71.7, ended it at 52.9.
There were a record 68 transactions valued at $10 billion or more announced globally in 2025. That drove the average annual deal size to a new high of nearly $227 million.
The latest Household Debt and Credit Report showed a $197 billion increase in total household debt during Q3, reaching a record $18.59 trillion. Mortgage debt, which represents the bulk of household debt, grew by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion. Non-housing debt also increased with credit card balances rising by $24 billion from the previous quarter to $1.23 trillion and student loan balances increasing by $15 billion to $1.65 trillion.
Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 4.3% annual rate for the July through September quarter. It was the highest growth rate in two years, and reflected robust spending by consumers on services like health care as well as spending on vehicles. Growth picked up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, and beat the 3.2% forecast.
The unemployment rate for college-educated workers who are 25 or older increased to 2.9% from 2.5% a year earlier and college-educated workers’ perceived probability of job loss in the next year rose to 15% from 11% three years ago.
