The monthly breakeven rate – the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable – was much higher in the 1970s at 185,000 jobs, as women and baby boomers poured into the labor force. It dropped to just 50,000 in late 2020 during the pandemic. This year, slower immigration means the breakeven pace could fall to nearly zero, requiring less than 10,000 new jobs per month in 2026.
Of the about $6 trillion in invested assets held by life and annuity companies, nearly $1 trillion is now in private-credit investments.
In March, more than $6 billion flowed out of high-yield bond funds. By contrast, almost $19 billion flowed into higher-rated, investment-grade bond funds.
Global corporate deals valued at $10 billion or more reached 22 transactions so far this year, a quarterly record. The total value of all deals so far this year jumped 29% year over year, but the overall number of transactions fell 17% due to slower smaller-deal activity.
Ten of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors were down 8.3% on average in March, with the energy sector being the lone exception.
Investors have yanked more than $11 billion out of private-credit funds during the past two quarters. Offsetting that, the funds have brought in $12.4 billion in new money in the past five months through February, though the rate is slowing.
KKR bought a majority stake in 2023 when CoolIT was valued at around $270 million. The firm is now set to make roughly 15 times the equity it invested. The transaction will represent one of the firm’s top returning investments over the past 20 years.
There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth in the number of very rich households has surpassed general population growth.
Software debt accounts for around 30% of all private-credit loans outstanding, while bank-originated debts hover around 10%.
Traders now see a 47% chance of a rate cut by December, down from 74% before the Iran war began last month.
