While the U.S. may import more manufactured goods than it exports, it runs a large trade surplus in financial services. The overall U.S. trade surplus for financial services in 2024 was about $130 billion.
Some 49 million options contracts changed hands each day in 2024, up from 19 million contracts in 2019. And as the size of the market has grown, individual investors’ slice of it has, too: They made up 29% of all options activity at the end of last year, up from 23% at the beginning of 2020.
The Barclays high-yield bond capitulation signal jumped 34 percentage points since the end of March to 91%, its highest level since October 2023, when Treasury yields surged on inflation fears. When the gauge hits 100%, the market is in full capitulation. That has happened five times this century: during the 2008-09 financial crisis; the 2011 European debt crisis; when oil prices plummeted in 2016; the start of the pandemic in 2020; and when interest rates surged in 2022.
Furloughs in the federal government totaled 216,215 for the month, part of a total 275,240 reductions overall in the labor force. The monthly total was surpassed only by April and May of 2020 in the early days of the pandemic when employers announced combined reductions of more than 1 million.
The 10 biggest U.S. consulting firms to the federal government have offered to cut billions of dollars from their contracts with agencies but face pushback from the Trump administration to deliver even deeper savings. Companies including Accenture, Booz Allen Hamilton, Deloitte, IBM and others met the General Services Administration deadline to justify their contracts and identify potential cost cuts to existing projects.
The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.
Dollar Tree agreed to a sale of its Family Dollar business to a consortium of private-equity investors for roughly $1 billion. Dollar Tree outbid its rival Dollar General to acquire the Family Dollar chain in 2015 for roughly $9 billion.