The Sahm rule, a rule of thumb popularized by economist Claudia Sahm, says that if the average of the unemployment rate over three months rises a half-percentage point or more above the lowest the three-month average went over the previous year, the economy is in a recession. Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4%—0.4 percentage point above the three-month average low of 3.6% over the past year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was pleased with how inflation had resumed a downtrend following a rebound at the start of the year, a sign the central bank might be able to lower interest rates by the end of the summer even though he declined to endorse such a move.

Two-thirds of outstanding U.S. mortgages have a rate below 4%. Were these homeowners to move, they would have to pay close to 7% for a new 30-year mortgage. The gap hasn’t been as wide since at least the late 1980s.

Americans have poured money into cash-like investments since the Fed began raising interest rates, driving assets in money-market funds to a record $6.12 trillion earlier this month.

Honeywell International has struck a roughly $2 billion deal to buy aerospace and defense technology company CAES Systems from private-equity firm Advent International.

Futures markets Friday showed investors think there is a better than 70% chance that the Fed will cut rates at least twice this year, with the first cut most likely happening in September. That was double the chances seen in late May.

Federal Reserve officials penciled in just one interest-rate cut for this year, indicating most are in no hurry to lower rates, even after a widely watched report showed inflation improved last month.

In 2008, the U.S. accounted for about a quarter of all outstanding debt issued by the governments of rich countries. Now it accounts for about half.

Americans in the first quarter earned about $3.7 trillion from interest and dividends, up roughly $770 billion from four years earlier.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s alternative investment platform raised more than $20 billion for senior direct lending in its latest fund targeting private-equity-backed global businesses.