The monthly breakeven rate – the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable – was much higher in the 1970s at 185,000 jobs, as women and baby boomers poured into the labor force. It dropped to just 50,000 in late 2020 during the pandemic. This year, slower immigration means the breakeven pace could fall to nearly zero, requiring less than 10,000 new jobs per month in 2026.